Daily Kos Elections releases initial gubernatorial race ratings for 2019

For the first time since 2003, all three governorships that are regularly elected in the year following midterm elections have the potential to change hands. The playing field, however, is entirely in the South and, as you'd expect, still largely favors Republicans. Nonetheless, an unusual set of circumstances gives Democrats reason for hope in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

Below we present our race ratings for this year’s gubernatorial contests. These ratings represent our attempt to forecast the outcomes of this November’s elections, using the best information we have available. As circumstances warrant, we’ll issue changes in these ratings from time to time. To keep up with any changes, please subscribe to our free newsletter, the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest, which we send out each weekday. We’ll also bring you our ratings for next year’s races for governor in a future installment.

Tossup

● Louisiana – John Bel Edwards (D): In almost any other state, John Bel Edwards would be on a glide-path to re-election: He's consistently enjoyed positive favorability numbers throughout his tenure, and last year, he reached a widely hailed budget deal with the GOP-run legislature to put Louisiana's perennially shaky finances on stable footing for the first time in many years.

He also avoided his strongest potential opponent when Sen. John Kennedy unexpectedly declined to run, and powerful Republicans have openly voiced doubts about the two lackluster alternatives they've been left with, Rep. Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone. (Louisiana's August filing deadline could allow for a late entry, but no major names are still actively considering a bid.) On top of that, Edwards has led both potential opponents both in fundraising and in virtually all available polling to date.

But Louisiana is still Louisiana—which is to say, it remains a very conservative state. In a painful irony, Edwards' responsible stewardship has helped erase memories of the disastrous misrule of his predecessor, Bobby Jindal, that was a key reason for his victory in 2015. And Republican voters will find it easier to support Abraham or Rispone than they did the fatally flawed David Vitter, whom Edwards dispatched by double digits four years ago.

from Daily Kos http://bit.ly/2Y4J7Xx