As the ground shifts in real time under GOP senators, 2020 isn't looking so hot for them

Some Senate Republicans are still living in their fact-free bubble, hermetically sealed from the reality that they need more than just votes from Trump cultists to win reelection in 2020. "I’ve looked at the transcript; I don’t see anything there," declared Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, who is up for reelection in 2020. Ernst seemingly proved the point of another GOP senator seeking reelection, Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who flatly told a conference call Wednesday "the Senate will never convict Trump."

The calculus is simple for some Republicans: Trump still has the support of nearly 90% of Republicans, they need him, and he's proven impenetrable by House Democrats. Pure politics.

But their calculation fails to include several elements of Trump's latest scandal, first and foremost that Democrats are finally uniting around impeachment. Part of what has insulated Trump was House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's reluctance to speak with a clear voice on any one of Trump's infinite number of misdeeds over the last several years. But when Pelosi stepped up to the microphone Tuesday amid a backdrop of stars and stripes and declared the opening of an "official impeachment inquiry," that all changed. By the end of Wednesday, at least 218 members of the House were on record supporting impeachment proceedings—the number necessary for articles of impeachment to clear the House floor.

What Senate Republicans have never faced is the punching power of a united Democratic caucus in the House combined with a scandal that's both damning and unbelievably easy to digest. The fact that the White House decided to release the notes of the call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also demonstrates a completely delusional miscalculation by the West Wing. That should scare the heck out of Senate Republicans and some of them are clearly spooked. One anonymously told the Washington Post the move was a "huge mistake."

Already, cracks are starting to emerge. Utah Sen. Mitt Romney called the call "deeply troubling," and Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, also up in 2020, put out a bothsidesism statement after reading the complaint that nonetheless impugned Republicans too. “Really troubling things here," Sasse said. "Republicans ought not just circle the wagons, and Democrats ought not have been using words like impeachment before they knew anything about the actual substance.” Washington Post reporter Robert Costa tweeted that Sasse's statement had caused "a stir" among Republicans, most of whom had fallen in line behind Trump like Pavlov's dogs. 

But trouble lurks for Republicans who don't start taking in the new lay of the land. Trump might not weather this scandal as easily as others now that Democrats are singing from the same song sheet. And any deliberative Republican should be frightened by the disastrous miscalculation Trump made in believing that releasing the phone call notes would work to his advantage.

After reading the call notes, GOP strategist Mike Murphy told MSNBC that if Democrats voted to impeach, vulnerable Senate Republicans would be in a heap of trouble. 

"If they provide cover for Trump on this," he said, "we're going to lose Colorado with Cory Gardner, we're going to lose Maine with Susan Collins, we're going to lose Arizona with Martha McSally and the Democrats will put the Senate very much in play."

from Daily Kos https://ift.tt/2lXGTMg