Masks and lockdowns are both effective, but the best government action is consistent information

On Tuesday, the United States reported 1,119 deaths from COVID-19, the highest number since back on July 2. The early numbers on Wednesday aren’t looking any better, with Florida already logging 140 deaths even though information is incomplete. All of this coming just a couple of weeks after governors in several of the most affected states were bragging about how, sure, there had been a surge in cases, but they hadn’t brought along an increase in deaths. From the beginning of the epidemic in the U.S., officials have seemed incapable of coping with the delay between when an action is taken and when responses are generated. The COVID-19 crisis is not a light switch. Any action is going to take at least two weeks to have an obvious effect on the numbers, and in most cases the time between action and reaction is going to be more like a month. 

A new analysis of pandemic data published in open access journal PLOS Medicine tries to look past those delays to determine which actions are genuinely effective. The authors, who are from Utrecht University in the Netherlands, developed a model that examined actions on an individual basis to see what could halt the spread of COVID-19. The results they generated match what everyone has seen in practice: masks, social distancing, hand-washing, and stay-at-home orders are all effective tools. But the biggest factor in putting the brakes on COVID-19 is none of the above. It’s awareness— consistent government information that keeps everyone on the same page and promotes people taking individual action, even without orders.

Even before the first stay-at-home order was issued, it was understood it would have an immediately visible impact on the economy. After all, stores are closed. Restaurants are idle. Shoppers … aren’t. It’s understandable that people started to fidget about the pocketbook effect of stay-at-home orders instantly, and that the weight of the loss was felt every day. With the United States being one of the few nations to not provide some form of universal income during the crisis, and ineffective measures to protect both renters and homeowners from months of accumulated bills, it was no surprise that within a very short period, some portion of Americans were ready to protest the orders to remain at home. Then the media gave fetishistic coverage to a handful of gun-totting yahoos who appeared at state capitols early in the crisis, creating an illusion that the demand for reopening was somehow universal even though a huge majority of Americans were still supportive of continuing stay-at-home orders.

Then governors like Parson in Missouri and DeSantis in Florida began reopening after lockdowns that lasted barely three weeks. They kept a stay-at-home order in place just long enough for the cases to begin to decline, then immediately started to roll back that achievement. While bragging.

The disconnect between actions taken to address COVID-19 and outcomes is how governors like DeSantis could stand around in May, bragging about how cases were under control. And then be back in June to sneer that sure, cases were going up, but the death rate was still low. And finally appear in July to declare … whatever. He’s made the commitment to ride this plane all the way to the ground, no matter how many passengers are on board. But even in states where governors did take action, they took it too slowly. In red states and in blue, far too many governors waited until the disaster was obvious before taking action. The difference between Republican governors and Democratic governors might best be reflected in this—Republicans compounded their errors by being even more reluctant to shut down a second time, despite the lesson that should have been fresh in their minds.

What the study out of the Netherlands shows is completely unsurprising: actions have consequences. They may not be immediately visible, but they’re also inexorable. And the biggest factor may simply be providing the public with a solid, consistent message on the danger of the virus, the importance of taking personal responsibility, and consistent guidelines on how to best deal with the situation.

Researchers found that governments that impose social distancing in the form of stay-at-home orders, end social gatherings, and close businesses can definitely “flatten the curve” and buy time for a nation to prepare a health response and take other actions. A three-month intervention could essentially halt the growth of the local epidemic, though not eliminate all active cases, for a period of up to seven months. Meaning that if U.S. states had locked down in March and stayed locked down through May, reopening could have begun in June with expectations that the pandemic would have remained significantly curtailed through the end of the year. Except … that didn’t happen.

Pair the government intervention with social distancing on the individual level and the effect is even greater—especially if the personal social distancing, masking, and hand-washing practices are continued after the intervention ends. Again, a combination of government-imposed social distancing, followed by personal social distancing, appears to be sufficient to take a nation into the period when a vaccine may be available. Unfortunately, not this nation.

Even without the benefit of a months-long government intervention, mask-wearing and hand-washing are effective measures. That makes continued awareness of the need for these actions “critical.” 

… governments and public health institutions should continuously mobilize people to adopt self-imposed measures with proven efficacy in order to successfully tackle COVID-19.

With 27 states and the District of Columbia now having mask mandates, messaging in the United States is starting to become more consistent. People need to be reminded frequently that these practices are the most important steps to preserve both lives and the economy. And if consistent messaging is the most critical factor in stopping the pandemic, that means that people like Parsons, DeSantis, and Donald Trump are the greatest danger to the nation.

from Daily Kos https://ift.tt/3jFVMfa